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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."